Global Economic & Market Cycles

Understanding the patterns of rise and fall in economies and markets through the lens of Ray Dalio's "The Changing World Order" and Reinhart-Rogoff's "This Time is Different".

LightDark
6
Major Empire Cycles
34
Financial Crises Documented
7
Long-term Debt Phases
500+
Years of Data

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes."— Mark Twain

Where Are We in the Cycle?

Current economic indicators compared to historical patterns

EarlyCrisis
Late Cycle
Risk Score: 55%
Rate Normalization(2022-Present)

Fastest rate hike cycle in decades to combat inflation.

Fastest rate hikes since 1980sQT (balance sheet reduction)Banking stress
3
Normal
3
Warning
4
Elevated

Key Economic Indicators

US Debt-to-GDP
123%
Avg: 65%Danger: 120%
Private Debt-to-GDP
150%
Avg: 120%Danger: 180%
Real Interest Rate
2%
Avg: 2.5%Danger: -2%
Yield Curve Spread
0.5%
Avg: 1.5%Danger: -0.5%
Unemployment Rate
4.2%
Avg: 5.8%Danger: 6%
Inflation Rate
3.2%
Avg: 3%Danger: 6%
Stock Market Valuation (CAPE)
32ratio
Avg: 17ratioDanger: 35ratio
Credit Spreads
1.5%
Avg: 2%Danger: 3%
Current Account Balance
-3% GDP
Avg: -2.5% GDPDanger: -6% GDP
Bank Leverage Ratio
12x
Avg: 15xDanger: 30x

Dalio's Long-Term Debt Cycle Phases

Post-War Recovery (1945-1965)Expansion Era (1965-1980)Volcker Shock (1980-1982)Great Moderation (1982-2007)Financial Crisis & QE Era (2008-2019)Pandemic Response (2020-2022)Rate Normalization (2022-now)←

This assessment is based on Ray Dalio's debt cycle framework from "The Changing World Order". Indicators are approximated and should not be used for investment decisions.

Key Frameworks

Ray Dalio's Big Cycle

Empires rise and fall in predictable patterns lasting 200-300 years. Key determinants include education, innovation, competitiveness, military strength, trade, and reserve currency status.

EducationInnovationTradeMilitaryCurrency

Reinhart-Rogoff Crisis Patterns

Financial crises follow remarkably similar patterns across countries and centuries. Common precursors include excessive debt, asset bubbles, and overconfidence that "this time is different."

Banking CrisisSovereign Debt CrisisCurrency CrisisInflation Crisis

Sources & Methodology

Primary Sources

  • • Ray Dalio - "The Changing World Order" (2021)
  • • Reinhart & Rogoff - "This Time is Different" (2009)
  • • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • • World Bank Development Indicators
  • • Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

Academic Frameworks (Handbook of Int'l Economics Vol. 3)

  • • Krugman (1979) - "Balance of Payments Crises"
  • • Obstfeld (1994) - "The Logic of Currency Crises"
  • • Calvo (1998) - "Capital Flows and Crises"
  • • Eichengreen, Hausmann & Panizza - "Original Sin"
  • • Reinhart & Rogoff - "Debt Intolerance"

Disclaimer

This visualization is for educational purposes only. Historical patterns are informative but not predictive of future events. Economic conditions are complex and past crises had unique circumstances that may not apply to current situations.