Monetary Policy Tracker

Track central bank decisions, rate paths, and forward guidance

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Understanding Monetary Policy

Monetary policy refers to the actions central banks take to manage money supply and interest rates in an economy. When a central bank raises rates (a "hike"), borrowing becomes more expensive, which tends to slow economic activity and reduce inflation. When it cuts rates, borrowing becomes cheaper, stimulating spending and investment. A hold decision signals the bank believes current conditions are appropriate.

Rate Hike ▲

Tightens monetary conditions. Used to combat high inflation by making borrowing more costly.

Rate Cut ▼

Loosens monetary conditions. Used to boost a slowing economy by making credit more affordable.

Hold ●

No change to the policy rate. Signals the central bank sees current policy as appropriate.

Forward guidance communicates expected future policy actions, helping markets anticipate rate paths. Divergence between central banks (e.g., one hiking while another cuts) affects currency markets and capital flows.Learn more in our guide →

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Forward Guidance & Market Expectations

Federal Reserve

Data-dependent; signaling gradual easing through 2026

Market expects: 2-3 additional cuts expected in 2026

ECB

Continued easing as inflation settles near 2% target

Market expects: 2-3 cuts expected in 2026

Bank of Japan

Gradual normalization as wage-price cycle strengthens

Market expects: 1-2 additional hikes in 2026

Bank of England

Gradual approach to removing monetary restraint

Market expects: 2-3 cuts expected through 2026

PBoC

Accommodative stance to support recovery and counter trade tensions

Market expects: Further easing likely in 2026

Bank of Canada

Approaching neutral rate, pace of cuts to slow

Market expects: 1-2 cuts in 2026

Reserve Bank of Australia

Began easing cycle, watching labor market and inflation

Market expects: 2-3 additional cuts in 2026

Swiss National Bank

Near lower bound, monitoring franc strength

Market expects: Limited further easing room

Reserve Bank of India

Shifted to accommodative stance to support growth

Market expects: 1-2 additional cuts in 2026