"What If" Scenario Simulator
Explore how changes in one metric might affect others based on historical correlations
How the Simulator Works
This tool uses historical correlations between economic indicators to estimate how a change in one metric might ripple through to others. For example, if a country raises interest rates by 2%, the simulator examines past data to estimate likely effects on GDP growth, inflation, exchange rates, and other variables. It is important to remember that correlation does not imply causation -- these are statistical associations, not proven causal relationships.
Correlation
Measures how two variables move together. Values range from -1 (opposite) to +1 (together). Near 0 means no relationship.
Lag Effect
Economic effects often take time. A "1yr lag" means the impact typically appears one year after the initial change.
Confidence Level
Reflects the strength and sample size of the correlation. Higher confidence means the historical pattern is more consistent.
Select a country, choose an input metric, set the change magnitude, then click "Run Simulation" to see estimated impacts.Learn more in our guide →
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