The Age of Leverage
Sovereign balance sheets after fifteen years of QE, pandemic-era stimulus and rising rates. Live World Bank fiscal series joined with IMF WEO projections, rating-agency letter grades, CDS spreads, sovereign defaults 2000-2024, central bank balance sheets and BIS household debt.
Global Debt Load
Sustainability scorecard for the 33 tracked economies. Each card scores debt level, debt service, budget balance, and the interest-growth differential into a composite 0-100 grade. Click cards to add or remove countries from the chapters below.
Sustainability Scorecard
IMF WEO Debt Projections, 2019-2029
Where the biggest sovereigns are headed. Dashed line marks 2024 — everything after is projected.
Public vs Private
The headline number is the government debt line, but the real vulnerability is often on the household side. Switzerland, Australia and South Korea are leveraged private-sector economies with modest sovereign books.
Debt Service Peaks
For emerging markets, the constraint isn't the debt stock — it's the coupon. Debt service as share of exports crosses 20% into distress territory. Live WB DT.TDS.DECT.EX.ZS.
Rating & CDS
What the market and the rating agencies think. Letter grades don't move often; CDS spreads move every day. When they diverge, the market is usually early.
Sovereign Defaults
Every full or selective sovereign default since 2000 — Argentina's serial repeat performances, Greece's 2012 PSI, the Covid-era wave (Zambia 2020, Sri Lanka 2022, Ghana 2022), Russia's sanctions default.
Central Bank Balance Sheets
The other side of sovereign debt is the central bank that bought it. Fed, ECB, BOJ, PBOC assets in USD trillions. The Bank of Japan owns roughly half of Japanese government bonds outstanding.